JCoBee WALK THE DEAL
TIER-1 AEROSPACE COMPONENTS INC.FULL ANALYSIS →
LET'S WALK THIS ONE TOGETHER
An owner-run shop,
on the market.
on the market.
TIER-1 AEROSPACE COMPONENTS INC. · CAMBRIDGE, ONTARIO, CANADA
Vertically integrated precision part manufacturer.
$4.15M in revenue, profitable. Looks good on the cover. Scroll, and I'll take you through it the way I would at the table, one piece at a time.
SCROLL TO BEGIN ↓
THE ONE QUESTION
Will it still make money
after the owner leaves?
after the owner leaves?
That is the whole game. Everything we look at is really asking that one thing. Start with the easy part.
FIRST, THE PRICE
It's priced below the floor.
ASK $3.75M
2.76×
floor
$4.48M
mid
$5.16M
high
$6.11M
Fair value for a shop like this runs $4.48M to $6.11M. The price on the table was $3.75M, a full $734K under the floor. On money alone this is a good buy. So why isn't it a slam dunk?
BECAUSE THE PRICE IS BLIND
A cheap price on a shaky
business isn't cheap.
business isn't cheap.
The discount is real, but the price can't tell you why it is there. It can't see which customer really carries the book, or the check the growth actually costs. Find the reason before you fall for it.
RISK ONE · THE CUSTOMERS
They told you it was
smaller than it is.
smaller than it is.
What the CIM says (top 10)73.4%
What the rows actually add up to82.8%
Top three customers are 43% of the book. The CIM says 73. The rows add up to 83. Concentration is worse than they told you. First thing to verify.
OPEN THE CUSTOMER TABLE →
RISK TWO · THE PEOPLE
The owners are the business.
👤👤
=
100%
of the quoting · 40+ years of judgment
The owners do the quoting themselves, 40+ years of instinct for what a job costs and whether to take it. And they're selling to retire. That knowledge is what you're actually buying, and right now it's a blank.
SOME CAN BE WRITTEN DOWN
get it on paper before close
SOME MOVES PERSON TO PERSON
keep them through a real transition
SOME DEPENDS ON YOU
the closer your trade is to theirs, the smaller the gap you're buying
The same business is a safe buy for someone who has lived this trade and a dangerous one for a stranger. Before you price the deal, size the gap between what they know and what you know.
WHAT WE CAUGHT
5 places the CIM and the
real records disagree.
real records disagree.
FY2022 EBITDA
$610K → $541K
Top-10 customer concentration
73.4% → 82.8%
FY2024 EBITDA (recast footing)
$1.21M → $1.28M
FY2024 income before tax
$992K → $981K
FY2024 S&A (maintainable base)
$298K → $309K
Every number the CIM stated, checked against the primary record. Where they split, the record governs. These aren't gotchas, they're your questions for the seller.
SEE THE FULL ANALYSIS →WILL THE BANK DO IT?
Yes. And it holds
under pressure.
under pressure.
BASE
1.90×
still clears
REVENUE -10%
1.71×
still clears
REVENUE -20%
1.52×
still clears
LENDER TEST
1.25×
the line to beat
10 of 12 covenants pass. Coverage is 1.90 times, and it holds to 1.52 even at minus twenty percent, above the bank's 1.25 line.
OPEN THE COVENANT DASHBOARD →
THE CHECK YOU'D ACTUALLY WRITE
Growth here
costs real money.
costs real money.
$750K
Down payment
equity at the model's default structure
$386K
Working capital
baseline estimate, not a diligenced reserve
$124K
Keep-current capex
annual estimate; no dated schedule in the records
=
$1.26M
All-in check
no dated renewal in the records; keep-current is the annual estimate
The shop runs near full. The next customer you win, the growth you are buying this for, needs the next machine, and keeping this fleet current is an ongoing capital line the records do not date. Add the down payment and working capital, and the check you'd actually write is about $1.26M. The bank test is not the buyer test. Total the checks before you fall for the coverage ratio.
THE READ
Priced to buy.
Verify who leaves.
Verify who leaves.
The money is a gift. So the deal doesn't turn on price, it turns on three things the price can't see: lock down the customer concentration, total the capital, because this deal can clear the bank and still be too big a check, and get the owner's knowledge transferred before they go.
That last part, who leaves, what walks with them, and how much of it you can actually receive, is the judgment. The one piece the software hands back to you.
CustomersWILL THE REVENUE STILL BE HERE AFTER YOU BUY IT?
← BACK TO THE WALK
You're buying this company's customer relationships. The real question is which ones stay when the owner walks. Fill in how solid each one is, and the read sharpens as you go.
Will the bank do it?COVENANT DASHBOARD · SMB LENDING FRAMEWORK
← BACK TO THE WALK
10 of 12 covenants pass. Computed live from this deal's financials at the model's default structure, the same read the full analysis shows.
SERVICEABILITY
▲ PASS
DSCR
1.90×
≥ 1.25×
▲ PASS
FCCR
1.90×
≥ 1.20×
▲ PASS
ICR
6.54×
≥ 2.00×
LEVERAGE
▲ PASS
Debt / TNW
2.52×
≤ 3.00×
▲ PASS
Debt / Cap
71.6%
≤ 75%
▲ PASS
Debt / EBITDA
2.35×
≤ 4.00×
ASSET COVERAGE
▲ PASS
A/R Coverage
17.7%
≥ 15%
▼ FAIL
Inventory Coverage
3.7%
≥ 10%
▲ PASS
Fixed Asset Coverage
16.8%
≥ 10%
◆ MARGINAL
Total ABL
38.1%
≥ 50%
LIQUIDITY
▲ PASS
Current Ratio
1.93×
≥ 1.20×
▲ PASS
NWC
$703K
≥ $0
BANKABILITY STRESS · DSCR BY SCENARIO · LENDER LINE 1.25×
BASE
1.90×
EBITDA $1.28M
REVENUE -10%
1.71×
EBITDA $1.15M · rev $-415K
REVENUE -20%
1.52×
EBITDA $1.02M · rev $-830K
LENDER TEST
1.25×
the line to beat